Momentum in the Middle & The War For Shrinking Consumer Dollars
- Tony Johnson
- 20 hours ago
- 7 min read
Where are we headed? Its the question on everyone's mind. It fuels board room discussions, team meetings, and every small business competing for a portion of market share.
What is clear is that experience will be the growth lever when spending tightens. While the economy certainly isn't falling apart, it is no longer as forgiving as it once was.
Last week I attended the 39th annual Economic Forecast Breakfast in Lakeland Florida and the theme of the day was Momentum in the Middle. A fitting label for this area - as central Florida - from Tampa though Lakeland to Orlando and Jacksonville has seen amazing growth in the last 5 years. You just need to take a drive on I-4 to see how popular this area has become.
Customer experience and hospitality are going to be absolute essentials for businesses anywhere who want to compete for shrinking customer dollars in a hyper-competitive marketplace.
Businesses have benefited from an ample money supply, credit card spending, and government spending, creating a sort of tailwind that might mask potential pitfalls.
Savings from AI and innovation will likely not fuel corporate profit, but rather create savings for customers as businesses compete for efficiency.
This year's event, sponsored by Allen & Company and the Lakeland Chamber of Commerce, revealed trends that are not just applicable to Lakeland, Polk County, and Florida, but to the entire country. Nationally recognized chief economist Brian Wesbury, the keynote speaker, shared some great nuggets.
Polk County is the fourth fastest-growing county in the country
People are moving to Florida because they favor the decisions being made here to the decisions being made in their localities (and, of course, the weather, beaches, and theme parks)
There are over 11 million consumers within 100 miles of Polk county
Migration continues to favor regions with safety, stability, and opportunity
Government stimulus is fading and consumer spending is tightening
60 percent of consumer spending now comes from the top 20 percent of income earners -Moody's Analytics
During the pandemic, the supply of money to consumers increased. This was due to stimulus and overall government spending - and that created a tailwind that may have given businesses a false sense of security. The increasing supply of money was the rising tide that lifted all boats, as they say.
That is, until the supply started to dwindle a bit.
We have all seen the stories reporting on the trimming of government spending, increased prices, increased credit card debt, and the impact of tariffs throughout the supply chain. When there is less money and things cost more, that is not a great formula for business growth - unless you are ready to compete for every dollar.
That is really what this all means. As consumers have less money to spend those dollars get stretched and discretionary spending gets squeezed, meaning that price sensitivity makes customer churn ever more likely in the market.
As stimulus fades and competition for consumer dollars intensifies, three things become true:
Discounting becomes more tempting (but dangerous) as customers price shop
Efficiency becomes table stakes, not advantage
Loyalty becomes harder to earn and easier to lose
This makes great customer experience and hospitality your first lines of defense.
Technology and AI will continue to compress costs and improve productivity. Over time, those gains will flow to consumers through pricing pressure because businesses will all adopt tools that make them more competitive. When efficiency becomes common, experience is what protects value.
This is why leaders need to rethink how they approach customer experience, employee experience, and hospitality right now.
You Are Competing For Dollars in Two Channels
The first channel is the upper income segment. Higher-earning consumers are still spending, particularly on travel, hospitality, and premium experiences. This is why luxury hotels are busy, premium lounges are full, first class is more expensive than ever, and destination experiences continue to command attention. But that doesn't mean that earning those dollars is easy.
Quite the opposite. When spending is discretionary, customers become more discerning. They expect distinction, personalization, and experiences that feel intentional rather than generic. In this segment, experience becomes about standing out and creating moments that differentiate the entire service ecosystem.
These guests are looking for surprising, easy, customizable experiences that make memories them themselves and their families.
The second channel includes more modest working households who are in the middle to lower 20% of earners. These consumers are under more pressure and their spending decisions are deliberate, cautious, and sometimes emotional. They are not necessarily looking for luxury, but they are absolutely looking for value and confidence that their money is being well spent. They do not want to be surprised or disappointed - and they are definitely looking for low friction experiences that are worth their dollars.
This is where experience becomes a retention strategy.
When budgets tighten, customers do not complain more - they exit faster. They stop tolerating friction and choose businesses that make life easier, quietly dropping those that do not.
Experience and service matter more when dollars are tight, meaning that organizations must not only prioritize the fundamentals of hospitality but a total experience design that protects quality and ease.
Book Tony Johnson today to speak at your next meeting, facilitate your workshop, consult on your customer experiences, or lead a training event in you business. Set up a call to discuss your personalized event.
What You Should Do Next
Experience Is a Business Strategy, Not a Nice to Have
When spending tightens and choice becomes more intentional, experience is one of the key levers to influence revenue, loyalty, and growth.
There must be clear ownership for experience so it is managed with intentionality and accountability - and CX teams must be up for the challenge.
Define how experience supports specific business outcomes such as retention, repeat behavior, and share of wallet rather than treating it as simply a brand or culture effort.
Translate experience strategy into operating priorities so leaders and teams understand specifically how they contribute and what they are expected to do.
Understand Where You Compete and Your Ideal Customer
You cannot design the right experience until you are honest about where you compete, who your ideal customers are, and what success looks like.
Identify where you compete and where you have the most success - not where you wish you could compete (that's a separate exercise if you are looking to shift your business model). Lean into your survey data and put that information to use as you dial in your offers.
Value | Everyday | Elevated | Premium | Luxury |
Prioritizes affordability and limited frills, often catering to price-sensitive consumers. | Emphasizes reliability, convenience, and speed while maintaining affordability. | Provides thoughtful enhancements such as better materials, improved design, and sense of hospitality. | Emphasizes superior quality, brand prestige, and refined overall experience and hospitality. | The pinnacle of craftmanship, personalization, exclusivity, prestige, and guest centricity. |
Segment your ideal customers and understand what matters to them, such as protecting value and quality for cost-conscious customers or delivering differentiation and emotional connection for premium customers.
Be clear about your offer and what you deliver to customers - managing expectations is about clear communication and ensuring that customers know what they can expect from you as a brand.
Design Experiences That Will Build Loyalty With Your Customers
You can't be everything to everyone, so understand what your customers want most from you.
For customers with spending power, experiences need to feel more personalized and connected. Personal touches matter, pacing matters, and generic service is seen as forgettable.
For customers under pressure, the experience is about value and trust. Clear communication, fewer steps, and no wasted time or surprises. That said, curated customizations are always appreciated if you can find small ways to integrate.
Create distinct experience standards, behaviors, and priorities for each segment so teams know how they can specifically contribute to delivering experiences and hospitality that resonates.
Measure What Predicts Loyalty, Not Just Satisfaction
Traditional satisfaction scores often lag reality and fail to reveal whether experience is actually protecting the business.
Track customer effort, repeat behavior, and churn indicators to understand how experience influences real decisions over time.
Watch for small behavior changes such as reduced visits, lower ticket averages, or waning brand engagement as early warning signs of experience breakdowns.
Use experience data to drive action by assigning ownership, timelines, and accountability rather than treating measurement as a reporting exercise - in other words, put that information to work to drive customer satisfaction. And make sure someone owns it.
Fix Experiences or Touchpoints That Create Hassles or Pain Points
In a disciplined economy, retaining existing customers through strong experience is more profitable than acquiring new ones.
Identify moments in the customer journey where friction, confusion, or inconsistency could cause customers to leave and address those first.
Resist defaulting to discounting as a growth lever and instead focus on experience improvements that make staying feel safer (and easier) than switching.
Double down on the fundamentals of experience to ensure you are delivering service that is foundationally strong. Focus on safety, ease of use, friendliness, consistent quality, and creating connection with customers.
The message from the Economic Forecast Breakfast was not pessimistic, but it was eye opening. People are still spending and growth is still available - it is just going to be a dog fight for every dollar.
The pool of consumer dollars will continue to shrink as government spending, stimulus, earnings, and credit card debt all intersect to impact how and where customers spend their money.
But momentum now belongs to organizations that earn customer business and loyalty rather than assume it. When money tightens, Customer Experience is not just about delight and hospitality - although people still want businesses to make them happy and treat them well.
But It also becomes about trust, confidence, and loyalty to brands who bring value.
That is where the next phase of growth will be won - and how you will keep people at the center of everything you do.
Tony Johnson
* Crafted with care + intentionality by a real human, not A.I.
Tony is an award winning speaker and author on the topics of sales growth, customer experience, and leadership. Tony speaks to thousands annually and has been featured on ABC News and Fox News. He is available for business planning, motivational keynotes, leadership workshops, and employee service skills training.
Tony is the founder of Ignite Your Service + Consulting and the Co-Managing Partner, Co-Owner, and Chief Experience Officer for 4xi Global.
Tony is available to help with your Customer Experience and Employee Engagement Strategies, inspirational keynote talks, team training and development, and executive leadership coaching.
* (C) 2026 The Tony Johnson, LLC. May not be used to train A.I.
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